You are here: Social Security Administration > Research, Statistics & Policy Analysis > Policy Option Projections
Projected Effects of a Proposal to Increase the Full Retirement Age (FRA)
Details: One month every 2 years starting in 2023
Table user guide | Projection methodology | All options comparison | Current FRA | Related research
Characteristic | Percent of population with a— |
Percent change in Social Security benefits at the— |
|||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Benefit decrease | Benefit increase |
10th %ile | Median | 90th %ile | |
Total | 11% | 0% | -1% | 0% | 0% |
Sex | |||||
Female | 10% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Male | 13% | 0% | -1% | 0% | 0% |
Race/ethnicity | |||||
Hispanic or Latino, any race | 19% | 0% | -1% | 0% | 0% |
White, non-Hispanic | 10% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Black or African American, non-Hispanic | 11% | 0% | -1% | 0% | 0% |
All other races, non-Hispanic | 13% | 0% | -1% | 0% | 0% |
Country of birth | |||||
United States | 10% | 0% | -1% | 0% | 0% |
Other countries | 16% | 0% | -1% | 0% | 0% |
Age | |||||
60–69 | 34% | 0% | -1% | 0% | 0% |
70–79 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
80–89 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
90 or older | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Marital status | |||||
Married | 14% | 0% | -1% | 0% | 0% |
Divorced | 11% | 0% | -1% | 0% | 0% |
Widowed | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Never married | 15% | 0% | -1% | 0% | 0% |
Highest education level | |||||
Graduate | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Bachelor | 11% | 0% | -1% | 0% | 0% |
Associate | 12% | 0% | -1% | 0% | 0% |
High school | 11% | 0% | -1% | 0% | 0% |
Less than high school | 15% | 0% | -1% | 0% | 0% |
Current-law poverty status | |||||
Above poverty | 11% | 0% | -1% | 0% | 0% |
In poverty | 19% | 0% | -1% | 0% | 0% |
Current-law household income quintile | |||||
Highest | 9% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Second highest | 12% | 0% | -1% | 0% | 0% |
Middle | 12% | 0% | -1% | 0% | 0% |
Second lowest | 11% | 0% | -1% | 0% | 0% |
Lowest | 12% | 0% | -1% | 0% | 0% |
Current-law benefit type | |||||
Retired worker only | 14% | 0% | -1% | 0% | 0% |
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Spousal (includes dually entitled) | 11% | 0% | -1% | 0% | 0% |
Disabled worker only | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 06/30/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v2 | |||||
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
|
Characteristic | Percent of population with a— |
Percent change in Social Security benefits at the— |
|||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Benefit decrease | Benefit increase |
10th %ile | Median | 90th %ile | |
Total | 65% | 0% | -6% | -2% | 0% |
Sex | |||||
Female | 60% | 0% | -6% | -2% | 0% |
Male | 69% | 0% | -6% | -3% | 0% |
Race/ethnicity | |||||
Hispanic or Latino, any race | 69% | 0% | -6% | -3% | 0% |
White, non-Hispanic | 63% | 0% | -6% | -2% | 0% |
Black or African American, non-Hispanic | 62% | 0% | -6% | -2% | 0% |
All other races, non-Hispanic | 70% | 0% | -6% | -3% | 0% |
Country of birth | |||||
United States | 64% | 0% | -6% | -2% | 0% |
Other countries | 68% | 0% | -6% | -2% | 0% |
Age | |||||
60–69 | 74% | 0% | -7% | -6% | 0% |
70–79 | 80% | 0% | -5% | -3% | 0% |
80–89 | 55% | 0% | -2% | -1% | 0% |
90 or older | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Marital status | |||||
Married | 73% | 0% | -6% | -3% | 0% |
Divorced | 64% | 0% | -6% | -2% | 0% |
Widowed | 37% | 0% | -4% | 0% | 0% |
Never married | 72% | 0% | -6% | -3% | 0% |
Highest education level | |||||
Graduate | 69% | 0% | -6% | -2% | 0% |
Bachelor | 66% | 0% | -6% | -2% | 0% |
Associate | 65% | 0% | -6% | -2% | 0% |
High school | 60% | 0% | -6% | -2% | 0% |
Less than high school | 67% | 0% | -6% | -3% | 0% |
Current-law poverty status | |||||
Above poverty | 65% | 0% | -6% | -2% | 0% |
In poverty | 65% | 0% | -6% | -2% | 0% |
Current-law household income quintile | |||||
Highest | 70% | 0% | -6% | -2% | 0% |
Second highest | 69% | 0% | -6% | -3% | 0% |
Middle | 67% | 0% | -6% | -2% | 0% |
Second lowest | 60% | 0% | -6% | -2% | 0% |
Lowest | 58% | 0% | -6% | -1% | 0% |
Current-law benefit type | |||||
Retired worker only | 76% | 0% | -6% | -3% | 0% |
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) | 24% | 0% | -2% | 0% | 0% |
Spousal (includes dually entitled) | 71% | 0% | -7% | -3% | 0% |
Disabled worker only | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 06/30/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v2 | |||||
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
|
Characteristic | Percent of population with a— |
Percent change in Social Security benefits at the— |
|||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Benefit decrease | Benefit increase |
10th %ile | Median | 90th %ile | |
Total | 78% | 0% | -11% | -6% | 0% |
Sex | |||||
Female | 77% | 0% | -11% | -6% | 0% |
Male | 80% | 0% | -12% | -7% | 0% |
Race/ethnicity | |||||
Hispanic or Latino, any race | 77% | 0% | -12% | -7% | 0% |
White, non-Hispanic | 79% | 0% | -11% | -6% | 0% |
Black or African American, non-Hispanic | 72% | 0% | -11% | -6% | 0% |
All other races, non-Hispanic | 83% | 0% | -12% | -7% | 0% |
Country of birth | |||||
United States | 79% | 0% | -11% | -6% | 0% |
Other countries | 77% | 0% | -12% | -6% | 0% |
Age | |||||
60–69 | 75% | 0% | -13% | -11% | 0% |
70–79 | 82% | 0% | -10% | -8% | 0% |
80–89 | 77% | 0% | -8% | -5% | 0% |
90 or older | 79% | 0% | -5% | -3% | 0% |
Marital status | |||||
Married | 82% | 0% | -12% | -8% | 0% |
Divorced | 79% | 0% | -11% | -5% | 0% |
Widowed | 64% | 0% | -8% | -3% | 0% |
Never married | 80% | 0% | -12% | -8% | 0% |
Highest education level | |||||
Graduate | 83% | 0% | -11% | -6% | 0% |
Bachelor | 83% | 0% | -11% | -6% | 0% |
Associate | 77% | 0% | -11% | -7% | 0% |
High school | 74% | 0% | -12% | -6% | 0% |
Less than high school | 75% | 0% | -12% | -8% | 0% |
Current-law poverty status | |||||
Above poverty | 78% | 0% | -11% | -6% | 0% |
In poverty | 78% | 0% | -12% | -8% | 0% |
Current-law household income quintile | |||||
Highest | 86% | 0% | -12% | -6% | 0% |
Second highest | 83% | 0% | -12% | -7% | 0% |
Middle | 78% | 0% | -12% | -7% | 0% |
Second lowest | 74% | 0% | -11% | -6% | 0% |
Lowest | 71% | 0% | -11% | -6% | 0% |
Current-law benefit type | |||||
Retired worker only | 87% | 0% | -12% | -8% | 0% |
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) | 53% | 0% | -5% | -1% | 0% |
Spousal (includes dually entitled) | 82% | 0% | -13% | -8% | 0% |
Disabled worker only | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 06/30/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v2 | |||||
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
|
Characteristic | Percent of population with a— |
Percent change in Social Security taxes paid at the— | Change in taxes paid (in 2021$) at the— |
|||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Tax decrease | Tax increase | 10th %ile | Median | 90th %ile | 10th %ile | Median | 90th %ile | |
Total | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | $0 | $0 | $0 |
Sex | ||||||||
Female | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | $0 | $0 | $0 |
Male | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | $0 | $0 | $0 |
Race/ethnicity | ||||||||
Hispanic or Latino, any race | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | $0 | $0 | $0 |
White, non-Hispanic | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | $0 | $0 | $0 |
Black or African American, non-Hispanic | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | $0 | $0 | $0 |
All other races, non-Hispanic | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | $0 | $0 | $0 |
Country of birth | ||||||||
United States | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | $0 | $0 | $0 |
Other countries | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | $0 | $0 | $0 |
Age | ||||||||
31–39 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | $0 | $0 | $0 |
40–49 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | $0 | $0 | $0 |
50–59 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | $0 | $0 | $0 |
60–69 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | $0 | $0 | $0 |
70 or older | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | $0 | $0 | $0 |
Marital status | ||||||||
Married | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | $0 | $0 | $0 |
Divorced | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | $0 | $0 | $0 |
Widowed | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | $0 | $0 | $0 |
Never married | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | $0 | $0 | $0 |
Highest education level | ||||||||
Graduate | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | $0 | $0 | $0 |
Bachelor | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | $0 | $0 | $0 |
Associate | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | $0 | $0 | $0 |
High school | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | $0 | $0 | $0 |
Less than high school | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | $0 | $0 | $0 |
Current-law household income quintile | ||||||||
Highest | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | $0 | $0 | $0 |
Second highest | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | $0 | $0 | $0 |
Middle | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | $0 | $0 | $0 |
Second lowest | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | $0 | $0 | $0 |
Lowest | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | $0 | $0 | $0 |
Current-law payroll taxes quintile | ||||||||
Highest | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | $0 | $0 | $0 |
Second highest | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | $0 | $0 | $0 |
Middle | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | $0 | $0 | $0 |
Second lowest | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | $0 | $0 | $0 |
Lowest | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | $0 | $0 | $0 |
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 06/30/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v2 | ||||||||
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
|
Characteristic | Percent of population with a— |
Percent change in Social Security taxes paid at the— | Change in taxes paid (in 2021$) at the— |
|||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Tax decrease | Tax increase | 10th %ile | Median | 90th %ile | 10th %ile | Median | 90th %ile | |
Total | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | $0 | $0 | $0 |
Sex | ||||||||
Female | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | $0 | $0 | $0 |
Male | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | $0 | $0 | $0 |
Race/ethnicity | ||||||||
Hispanic or Latino, any race | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | $0 | $0 | $0 |
White, non-Hispanic | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | $0 | $0 | $0 |
Black or African American, non-Hispanic | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | $0 | $0 | $0 |
All other races, non-Hispanic | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | $0 | $0 | $0 |
Country of birth | ||||||||
United States | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | $0 | $0 | $0 |
Other countries | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | $0 | $0 | $0 |
Age | ||||||||
31–39 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | $0 | $0 | $0 |
40–49 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | $0 | $0 | $0 |
50–59 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | $0 | $0 | $0 |
60–69 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | $0 | $0 | $0 |
70 or older | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | $0 | $0 | $0 |
Marital status | ||||||||
Married | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | $0 | $0 | $0 |
Divorced | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | $0 | $0 | $0 |
Widowed | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | $0 | $0 | $0 |
Never married | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | $0 | $0 | $0 |
Highest education level | ||||||||
Graduate | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | $0 | $0 | $0 |
Bachelor | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | $0 | $0 | $0 |
Associate | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | $0 | $0 | $0 |
High school | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | $0 | $0 | $0 |
Less than high school | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | $0 | $0 | $0 |
Current-law household income quintile | ||||||||
Highest | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | $0 | $0 | $0 |
Second highest | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | $0 | $0 | $0 |
Middle | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | $0 | $0 | $0 |
Second lowest | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | $0 | $0 | $0 |
Lowest | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | $0 | $0 | $0 |
Current-law payroll taxes quintile | ||||||||
Highest | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | $0 | $0 | $0 |
Second highest | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | $0 | $0 | $0 |
Middle | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | $0 | $0 | $0 |
Second lowest | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | $0 | $0 | $0 |
Lowest | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | $0 | $0 | $0 |
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 06/30/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v2 | ||||||||
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
|
Characteristic | Percent of population with a— |
Percent change in Social Security taxes paid at the— | Change in taxes paid (in 2021$) at the— |
|||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Tax decrease | Tax increase | 10th %ile | Median | 90th %ile | 10th %ile | Median | 90th %ile | |
Total | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | $0 | $0 | $0 |
Sex | ||||||||
Female | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | $0 | $0 | $0 |
Male | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | $0 | $0 | $0 |
Race/ethnicity | ||||||||
Hispanic or Latino, any race | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | $0 | $0 | $0 |
White, non-Hispanic | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | $0 | $0 | $0 |
Black or African American, non-Hispanic | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | $0 | $0 | $0 |
All other races, non-Hispanic | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | $0 | $0 | $0 |
Country of birth | ||||||||
United States | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | $0 | $0 | $0 |
Other countries | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | $0 | $0 | $0 |
Age | ||||||||
31–39 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | $0 | $0 | $0 |
40–49 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | $0 | $0 | $0 |
50–59 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | $0 | $0 | $0 |
60–69 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | $0 | $0 | $0 |
70 or older | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | $0 | $0 | $0 |
Marital status | ||||||||
Married | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | $0 | $0 | $0 |
Divorced | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | $0 | $0 | $0 |
Widowed | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | $0 | $0 | $0 |
Never married | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | $0 | $0 | $0 |
Highest education level | ||||||||
Graduate | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | $0 | $0 | $0 |
Bachelor | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | $0 | $0 | $0 |
Associate | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | $0 | $0 | $0 |
High school | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | $0 | $0 | $0 |
Less than high school | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | $0 | $0 | $0 |
Current-law household income quintile | ||||||||
Highest | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | $0 | $0 | $0 |
Second highest | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | $0 | $0 | $0 |
Middle | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | $0 | $0 | $0 |
Second lowest | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | $0 | $0 | $0 |
Lowest | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | $0 | $0 | $0 |
Current-law payroll taxes quintile | ||||||||
Highest | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | $0 | $0 | $0 |
Second highest | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | $0 | $0 | $0 |
Middle | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | $0 | $0 | $0 |
Second lowest | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | $0 | $0 | $0 |
Lowest | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | $0 | $0 | $0 |
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 06/30/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v2 | ||||||||
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
|
Characteristic | Percent of population with an— |
Percent change in household income at the— |
|||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income decrease | Income increase | 10th %ile | Median | 90th %ile | |
Total | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Sex | |||||
Female | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Male | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Race/ethnicity | |||||
Hispanic or Latino, any race | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
White, non-Hispanic | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Black or African American, non-Hispanic | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
All other races, non-Hispanic | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Country of birth | |||||
United States | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Other countries | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Age | |||||
60–69 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
70–79 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
80–89 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
90 or older | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Marital status | |||||
Married | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Divorced | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Widowed | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Never married | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Highest education level | |||||
Graduate | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Bachelor | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Associate | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
High school | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Less than high school | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Current-law poverty status | |||||
Above poverty | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
In poverty | 12% | 0% | -1% | 0% | 0% |
Current-law household income quintile | |||||
Highest | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Second highest | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Middle | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Second lowest | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Lowest | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Current-law benefit type | |||||
Retired worker only | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Spousal (includes dually entitled) | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Disabled worker only | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 06/30/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v2 | |||||
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
|
Characteristic | Percent of population with an— |
Percent change in household income at the— |
|||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income decrease | Income increase | 10th %ile | Median | 90th %ile | |
Total | 43% | 0% | -3% | 0% | 0% |
Sex | |||||
Female | 40% | 0% | -3% | 0% | 0% |
Male | 47% | 0% | -3% | 0% | 0% |
Race/ethnicity | |||||
Hispanic or Latino, any race | 51% | 0% | -3% | -1% | 0% |
White, non-Hispanic | 41% | 0% | -2% | 0% | 0% |
Black or African American, non-Hispanic | 44% | 0% | -3% | 0% | 0% |
All other races, non-Hispanic | 40% | 0% | -3% | 0% | 0% |
Country of birth | |||||
United States | 43% | 0% | -3% | 0% | 0% |
Other countries | 45% | 0% | -3% | 0% | 0% |
Age | |||||
60–69 | 59% | 0% | -4% | -1% | 0% |
70–79 | 58% | 0% | -3% | -1% | 0% |
80–89 | 20% | 0% | -1% | 0% | 0% |
90 or older | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Marital status | |||||
Married | 51% | 0% | -3% | -1% | 0% |
Divorced | 41% | 0% | -3% | 0% | 0% |
Widowed | 19% | 0% | -1% | 0% | 0% |
Never married | 50% | 0% | -4% | -1% | 0% |
Highest education level | |||||
Graduate | 36% | 0% | -2% | 0% | 0% |
Bachelor | 38% | 0% | -2% | 0% | 0% |
Associate | 48% | 0% | -3% | 0% | 0% |
High school | 45% | 0% | -3% | 0% | 0% |
Less than high school | 51% | 0% | -4% | -1% | 0% |
Current-law poverty status | |||||
Above poverty | 43% | 0% | -3% | 0% | 0% |
In poverty | 49% | 0% | -5% | 0% | 0% |
Current-law household income quintile | |||||
Highest | 16% | 0% | -1% | 0% | 0% |
Second highest | 41% | 0% | -2% | 0% | 0% |
Middle | 53% | 0% | -2% | -1% | 0% |
Second lowest | 55% | 0% | -3% | -1% | 0% |
Lowest | 52% | 0% | -5% | -1% | 0% |
Current-law benefit type | |||||
Retired worker only | 50% | 0% | -3% | -1% | 0% |
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) | 13% | 0% | -1% | 0% | 0% |
Spousal (includes dually entitled) | 53% | 0% | -3% | -1% | 0% |
Disabled worker only | 11% | 0% | -1% | 0% | 0% |
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 06/30/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v2 | |||||
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
|
Characteristic | Percent of population with an— |
Percent change in household income at the— |
|||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income decrease | Income increase | 10th %ile | Median | 90th %ile | |
Total | 69% | 0% | -7% | -2% | 0% |
Sex | |||||
Female | 67% | 0% | -7% | -1% | 0% |
Male | 71% | 0% | -7% | -2% | 0% |
Race/ethnicity | |||||
Hispanic or Latino, any race | 71% | 0% | -8% | -2% | 0% |
White, non-Hispanic | 69% | 0% | -6% | -2% | 0% |
Black or African American, non-Hispanic | 65% | 0% | -8% | -2% | 0% |
All other races, non-Hispanic | 66% | 0% | -7% | -1% | 0% |
Country of birth | |||||
United States | 70% | 0% | -7% | -2% | 0% |
Other countries | 66% | 0% | -7% | -2% | 0% |
Age | |||||
60–69 | 70% | 0% | -10% | -2% | 0% |
70–79 | 74% | 0% | -7% | -2% | 0% |
80–89 | 66% | 0% | -5% | -1% | 0% |
90 or older | 54% | 0% | -3% | -1% | 0% |
Marital status | |||||
Married | 80% | 0% | -7% | -2% | 0% |
Divorced | 63% | 0% | -7% | -1% | 0% |
Widowed | 47% | 0% | -5% | 0% | 0% |
Never married | 67% | 0% | -9% | -2% | 0% |
Highest education level | |||||
Graduate | 65% | 0% | -6% | -1% | 0% |
Bachelor | 68% | 0% | -6% | -1% | 0% |
Associate | 72% | 0% | -7% | -2% | 0% |
High school | 70% | 0% | -8% | -2% | 0% |
Less than high school | 68% | 0% | -8% | -2% | 0% |
Current-law poverty status | |||||
Above poverty | 69% | 0% | -7% | -2% | 0% |
In poverty | 61% | 2% | -10% | -4% | 0% |
Current-law household income quintile | |||||
Highest | 45% | 0% | -2% | 0% | 0% |
Second highest | 75% | 0% | -4% | -1% | 0% |
Middle | 79% | 0% | -6% | -2% | 0% |
Second lowest | 77% | 0% | -8% | -3% | 0% |
Lowest | 69% | 1% | -10% | -4% | 0% |
Current-law benefit type | |||||
Retired worker only | 77% | 0% | -8% | -2% | 0% |
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) | 37% | 0% | -3% | 0% | 0% |
Spousal (includes dually entitled) | 80% | 1% | -7% | -2% | 0% |
Disabled worker only | 14% | 0% | -2% | 0% | 0% |
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 06/30/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v2 | |||||
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
|
Characteristic | Official poverty rate | Number of population in poverty (in thousands) |
Percent change in the number in poverty | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Without proposal | With proposal | Without proposal | With proposal | Change | ||
Total | 5% | 5% | 3,237 | 3,252 | 15 | 0% |
Sex | ||||||
Female | 5% | 5% | 1,787 | 1,791 | 3 | 0% |
Male | 4% | 4% | 1,450 | 1,462 | 11 | 0% |
Race/ethnicity | ||||||
Hispanic or Latino, any race | 7% | 7% | 570 | 574 | 4 | 0% |
White, non-Hispanic | 3% | 3% | 1,804 | 1,811 | 7 | 0% |
Black or African American, non-Hispanic | 9% | 9% | 636 | 636 | 0 | 0% |
All other races, non-Hispanic | 6% | 6% | 228 | 231 | 3 | 1% |
Country of birth | ||||||
United States | 4% | 4% | 2,472 | 2,483 | 10 | 0% |
Other countries | 7% | 7% | 765 | 769 | 4 | 0% |
Age | ||||||
60–69 | 6% | 6% | 1,486 | 1,497 | 10 | 0% |
70–79 | 4% | 4% | 1,318 | 1,322 | 4 | 0% |
80–89 | 3% | 3% | 381 | 381 | 0 | 0% |
90 or older | 2% | 2% | 53 | 53 | 0 | 0% |
Marital status | ||||||
Married | 1% | 1% | 469 | 473 | 4 | 0% |
Divorced | 9% | 9% | 1,207 | 1,214 | 7 | 0% |
Widowed | 6% | 6% | 740 | 740 | 0 | 0% |
Never married | 16% | 16% | 821 | 824 | 3 | 0% |
Highest education level | ||||||
Graduate | 1% | 1% | 97 | 97 | 0 | 0% |
Bachelor | 2% | 2% | 263 | 263 | 0 | 0% |
Associate | 4% | 4% | 626 | 626 | 0 | 0% |
High school | 6% | 6% | 1,534 | 1,545 | 10 | 0% |
Less than high school | 12% | 12% | 717 | 721 | 4 | 0% |
Current-law benefit type | ||||||
Retired worker only | 4% | 4% | 2,252 | 2,267 | 15 | 0% |
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) | 5% | 5% | 577 | 577 | 0 | 0% |
Spousal (includes dually entitled) | 2% | 2% | 145 | 145 | 0 | 0% |
Disabled worker only | 10% | 10% | 263 | 263 | 0 | 0% |
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 06/30/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v2 | ||||||
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
|
Characteristic | Official poverty rate | Number of population in poverty (in thousands) |
Percent change in the number in poverty | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Without proposal | With proposal | Without proposal | With proposal | Change | ||
Total | 4% | 4% | 3,309 | 3,557 | 248 | 7% |
Sex | ||||||
Female | 4% | 4% | 1,862 | 1,980 | 118 | 6% |
Male | 4% | 4% | 1,447 | 1,576 | 129 | 8% |
Race/ethnicity | ||||||
Hispanic or Latino, any race | 6% | 6% | 897 | 956 | 58 | 6% |
White, non-Hispanic | 3% | 3% | 1,472 | 1,577 | 104 | 7% |
Black or African American, non-Hispanic | 8% | 8% | 679 | 740 | 61 | 9% |
All other races, non-Hispanic | 4% | 4% | 261 | 284 | 22 | 8% |
Country of birth | ||||||
United States | 4% | 4% | 2,260 | 2,438 | 177 | 7% |
Other countries | 6% | 6% | 1,048 | 1,119 | 70 | 6% |
Age | ||||||
60–69 | 5% | 6% | 1,277 | 1,390 | 113 | 8% |
70–79 | 4% | 4% | 1,105 | 1,223 | 117 | 10% |
80–89 | 3% | 4% | 734 | 751 | 16 | 2% |
90 or older | 3% | 3% | 193 | 193 | 0 | 0% |
Marital status | ||||||
Married | 1% | 1% | 457 | 501 | 44 | 9% |
Divorced | 6% | 7% | 948 | 1,028 | 79 | 8% |
Widowed | 5% | 5% | 750 | 785 | 34 | 4% |
Never married | 12% | 13% | 1,154 | 1,244 | 89 | 7% |
Highest education level | ||||||
Graduate | 1% | 1% | 91 | 97 | 6 | 7% |
Bachelor | 2% | 2% | 280 | 317 | 36 | 12% |
Associate | 3% | 3% | 555 | 620 | 65 | 11% |
High school | 6% | 6% | 1,549 | 1,662 | 112 | 7% |
Less than high school | 11% | 11% | 834 | 861 | 27 | 3% |
Current-law poverty status | ||||||
Above poverty | 0% | 0% | 0 | 250 | 250 | . . . |
In poverty | 100% | 100% | 3,309 | 3,307 | -2 | 0% |
Current-law benefit type | ||||||
Retired worker only | 4% | 4% | 2,500 | 2,714 | 213 | 8% |
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) | 4% | 4% | 498 | 516 | 18 | 3% |
Spousal (includes dually entitled) | 1% | 2% | 99 | 115 | 15 | 16% |
Disabled worker only | 6% | 6% | 212 | 212 | 0 | 0% |
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 06/30/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v2 | ||||||
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
. . . = not applicable.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
|
Characteristic | Official poverty rate | Number of population in poverty (in thousands) |
Percent change in the number in poverty | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Without proposal | With proposal | Without proposal | With proposal | Change | ||
Total | 3% | 3% | 2,425 | 2,922 | 497 | 20% |
Sex | ||||||
Female | 3% | 3% | 1,304 | 1,564 | 259 | 19% |
Male | 2% | 3% | 1,121 | 1,359 | 237 | 21% |
Race/ethnicity | ||||||
Hispanic or Latino, any race | 3% | 4% | 769 | 938 | 168 | 21% |
White, non-Hispanic | 2% | 2% | 1,009 | 1,210 | 200 | 19% |
Black or African American, non-Hispanic | 4% | 5% | 392 | 469 | 76 | 19% |
All other races, non-Hispanic | 3% | 3% | 254 | 306 | 52 | 20% |
Country of birth | ||||||
United States | 2% | 3% | 1,586 | 1,942 | 355 | 22% |
Other countries | 4% | 5% | 839 | 980 | 141 | 16% |
Age | ||||||
60–69 | 3% | 4% | 795 | 1,010 | 215 | 27% |
70–79 | 3% | 3% | 906 | 1,084 | 177 | 19% |
80–89 | 3% | 3% | 585 | 668 | 83 | 14% |
90 or older | 2% | 2% | 139 | 160 | 20 | 14% |
Marital status | ||||||
Married | 1% | 1% | 292 | 351 | 58 | 20% |
Divorced | 3% | 4% | 613 | 769 | 155 | 25% |
Widowed | 3% | 4% | 473 | 561 | 87 | 18% |
Never married | 6% | 7% | 1,046 | 1,241 | 194 | 18% |
Highest education level | ||||||
Graduate | 1% | 1% | 156 | 171 | 14 | 9% |
Bachelor | 1% | 1% | 218 | 255 | 36 | 16% |
Associate | 2% | 3% | 405 | 509 | 104 | 25% |
High school | 4% | 4% | 1,033 | 1,259 | 226 | 21% |
Less than high school | 6% | 7% | 613 | 728 | 115 | 18% |
Current-law poverty status | ||||||
Above poverty | 0% | 1% | 0 | 504 | 503 | . . . |
In poverty | 100% | 100% | 2,425 | 2,419 | -6 | 0% |
Current-law benefit type | ||||||
Retired worker only | 3% | 3% | 1,958 | 2,420 | 461 | 23% |
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) | 2% | 3% | 321 | 351 | 30 | 9% |
Spousal (includes dually entitled) | 1% | 1% | 41 | 46 | 5 | 12% |
Disabled worker only | 3% | 3% | 105 | 105 | 0 | 0% |
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 06/30/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v2 | ||||||
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
. . . = not applicable.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
|
Characteristic | Percent of population with a— |
Percent change in benefit/tax ratio at the— | Benefit/tax ratio without proposal at the— |
Benefit/tax ratio with proposal at the— |
|||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Ratio decrease | Ratio increase | 10th %ile | Median | 90th %ile | 10th %ile | Median | 90th %ile | 10th %ile | Median | 90th %ile | |
Total | 34% | 0% | -2% | 0% | 0% | 5% | 127% | 397% | 5% | 126% | 396% |
Sex | |||||||||||
Female | 30% | 0% | -1% | 0% | 0% | 23% | 159% | 562% | 23% | 158% | 559% |
Male | 38% | 0% | -2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 105% | 239% | 0% | 104% | 238% |
Race/ethnicity | |||||||||||
Hispanic or Latino, any race | 35% | 0% | -2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 141% | 506% | 0% | 139% | 502% |
White, non-Hispanic | 34% | 0% | -2% | 0% | 0% | 14% | 122% | 359% | 14% | 121% | 358% |
Black or African American, non-Hispanic | 28% | 0% | -1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 131% | 410% | 0% | 130% | 410% |
All other races, non-Hispanic | 38% | 0% | -2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 132% | 493% | 0% | 130% | 490% |
Country of birth | |||||||||||
United States | 33% | 0% | -2% | 0% | 0% | 12% | 123% | 363% | 11% | 122% | 362% |
Other countries | 36% | 0% | -2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 144% | 525% | 0% | 143% | 521% |
Highest education level | |||||||||||
Graduate | 44% | 0% | -2% | 0% | 0% | 24% | 113% | 245% | 24% | 112% | 242% |
Bachelor | 42% | 0% | -2% | 0% | 0% | 25% | 120% | 324% | 25% | 118% | 323% |
Associate | 33% | 0% | -2% | 0% | 0% | 16% | 127% | 340% | 16% | 126% | 339% |
High school | 29% | 0% | -1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 133% | 475% | 0% | 131% | 474% |
Less than high school | 28% | 0% | -2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 141% | 718% | 0% | 139% | 718% |
Current-law initial AIME quintile | |||||||||||
Highest | 57% | 0% | -2% | -1% | 0% | 36% | 93% | 136% | 35% | 92% | 134% |
Second highest | 40% | 0% | -2% | 0% | 0% | 21% | 118% | 175% | 21% | 116% | 173% |
Middle | 30% | 0% | -1% | 0% | 0% | 10% | 140% | 234% | 10% | 139% | 232% |
Second lowest | 26% | 0% | -1% | 0% | 0% | 23% | 205% | 444% | 23% | 204% | 444% |
Lowest | 16% | 0% | -1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 228% | 1,369% | 0% | 226% | 1,365% |
Lifetime payroll tax quintile | |||||||||||
Highest | 57% | 0% | -2% | -1% | 0% | 40% | 94% | 134% | 40% | 93% | 133% |
Second highest | 39% | 0% | -2% | 0% | 0% | 23% | 118% | 173% | 23% | 117% | 171% |
Middle | 30% | 0% | -1% | 0% | 0% | 16% | 141% | 235% | 16% | 140% | 234% |
Second lowest | 26% | 0% | -1% | 0% | 0% | 18% | 193% | 403% | 18% | 192% | 402% |
Lowest | 17% | 0% | -1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 270% | 1,384% | 0% | 269% | 1,377% |
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared) | |||||||||||
Highest | 57% | 0% | -2% | -1% | 0% | 47% | 101% | 169% | 47% | 100% | 167% |
Second highest | 37% | 0% | -2% | 0% | 0% | 33% | 118% | 237% | 33% | 117% | 236% |
Middle | 29% | 0% | -1% | 0% | 0% | 15% | 136% | 314% | 15% | 135% | 312% |
Second lowest | 27% | 0% | -1% | 0% | 0% | 9% | 165% | 490% | 9% | 164% | 489% |
Lowest | 18% | 0% | -1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 183% | 1,028% | 0% | 182% | 1,027% |
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 06/30/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v2 | |||||||||||
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
|
Characteristic | Percent of population with a— |
Percent change in benefit/tax ratio at the— | Benefit/tax ratio without proposal at the— |
Benefit/tax ratio with proposal at the— |
|||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Ratio decrease | Ratio increase | 10th %ile | Median | 90th %ile | 10th %ile | Median | 90th %ile | 10th %ile | Median | 90th %ile | |
Total | 67% | 0% | -7% | -5% | 0% | 0% | 119% | 375% | 0% | 112% | 365% |
Sex | |||||||||||
Female | 68% | 0% | -7% | -5% | 0% | 0% | 143% | 532% | 0% | 135% | 520% |
Male | 66% | 0% | -7% | -6% | 0% | 0% | 101% | 258% | 0% | 96% | 250% |
Race/ethnicity | |||||||||||
Hispanic or Latino, any race | 62% | 0% | -7% | -5% | 0% | 0% | 128% | 410% | 0% | 121% | 395% |
White, non-Hispanic | 72% | 0% | -7% | -5% | 0% | 14% | 118% | 372% | 13% | 111% | 360% |
Black or African American, non-Hispanic | 54% | 0% | -7% | -5% | 0% | 0% | 111% | 323% | 0% | 105% | 319% |
All other races, non-Hispanic | 67% | 0% | -7% | -6% | 0% | 0% | 106% | 410% | 0% | 100% | 391% |
Country of birth | |||||||||||
United States | 70% | 0% | -7% | -5% | 0% | 7% | 118% | 342% | 7% | 111% | 335% |
Other countries | 59% | 0% | -7% | -5% | 0% | 0% | 121% | 521% | 0% | 114% | 514% |
Highest education level | |||||||||||
Graduate | 81% | 0% | -8% | -6% | 0% | 21% | 105% | 271% | 19% | 99% | 260% |
Bachelor | 78% | 0% | -8% | -6% | 0% | 5% | 107% | 291% | 5% | 101% | 281% |
Associate | 67% | 0% | -7% | -5% | 0% | 0% | 120% | 329% | 0% | 114% | 323% |
High school | 60% | 0% | -7% | -5% | 0% | 0% | 130% | 483% | 0% | 123% | 475% |
Less than high school | 55% | 0% | -7% | -5% | 0% | 0% | 126% | 612% | 0% | 120% | 595% |
Current-law initial AIME quintile | |||||||||||
Highest | 92% | 0% | -8% | -6% | -3% | 37% | 87% | 124% | 34% | 81% | 117% |
Second highest | 80% | 0% | -7% | -6% | 0% | 34% | 117% | 176% | 33% | 110% | 170% |
Middle | 69% | 0% | -7% | -5% | 0% | 28% | 145% | 258% | 27% | 137% | 252% |
Second lowest | 61% | 0% | -7% | -5% | 0% | 0% | 204% | 522% | 0% | 195% | 514% |
Lowest | 34% | 0% | -7% | -2% | 0% | 0% | 122% | 1,803% | 0% | 117% | 1,767% |
Lifetime payroll tax quintile | |||||||||||
Highest | 93% | 0% | -8% | -6% | -3% | 40% | 88% | 125% | 37% | 82% | 117% |
Second highest | 79% | 0% | -7% | -6% | 0% | 36% | 117% | 178% | 35% | 110% | 171% |
Middle | 69% | 0% | -7% | -5% | 0% | 29% | 144% | 261% | 28% | 137% | 256% |
Second lowest | 61% | 0% | -7% | -5% | 0% | 0% | 197% | 467% | 0% | 188% | 458% |
Lowest | 34% | 0% | -7% | -2% | 0% | 0% | 121% | 1,917% | 0% | 115% | 1,896% |
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared) | |||||||||||
Highest | 92% | 0% | -8% | -6% | -2% | 42% | 90% | 149% | 39% | 85% | 142% |
Second highest | 82% | 0% | -7% | -6% | 0% | 43% | 119% | 247% | 40% | 112% | 241% |
Middle | 70% | 0% | -7% | -5% | 0% | 31% | 139% | 330% | 30% | 132% | 324% |
Second lowest | 60% | 0% | -7% | -5% | 0% | 7% | 176% | 565% | 7% | 167% | 551% |
Lowest | 32% | 0% | -7% | -3% | 0% | 0% | 66% | 922% | 0% | 64% | 905% |
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 06/30/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v2 | |||||||||||
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
|
Characteristic | Percent of population with a— |
Percent change in benefit/tax ratio at the— | Benefit/tax ratio without proposal at the— |
Benefit/tax ratio with proposal at the— |
|||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Ratio decrease | Ratio increase | 10th %ile | Median | 90th %ile | 10th %ile | Median | 90th %ile | 10th %ile | Median | 90th %ile | |
Total | 69% | 0% | -13% | -10% | 0% | 0% | 116% | 343% | 0% | 104% | 331% |
Sex | |||||||||||
Female | 71% | 0% | -12% | -10% | 0% | 0% | 137% | 486% | 0% | 124% | 469% |
Male | 67% | 0% | -13% | -11% | 0% | 0% | 99% | 245% | 0% | 89% | 231% |
Race/ethnicity | |||||||||||
Hispanic or Latino, any race | 66% | 0% | -13% | -10% | 0% | 0% | 124% | 369% | 0% | 111% | 354% |
White, non-Hispanic | 74% | 0% | -13% | -10% | 0% | 17% | 115% | 338% | 14% | 103% | 325% |
Black or African American, non-Hispanic | 58% | 0% | -13% | -10% | 0% | 0% | 112% | 306% | 0% | 101% | 299% |
All other races, non-Hispanic | 71% | 0% | -13% | -11% | 0% | 0% | 100% | 327% | 0% | 89% | 306% |
Country of birth | |||||||||||
United States | 71% | 0% | -13% | -10% | 0% | 11% | 116% | 318% | 10% | 104% | 306% |
Other countries | 63% | 0% | -13% | -11% | 0% | 0% | 116% | 475% | 0% | 104% | 454% |
Highest education level | |||||||||||
Graduate | 82% | 0% | -13% | -11% | 0% | 25% | 106% | 255% | 23% | 94% | 238% |
Bachelor | 80% | 0% | -13% | -11% | 0% | 8% | 103% | 272% | 7% | 92% | 258% |
Associate | 67% | 0% | -12% | -10% | 0% | 0% | 118% | 309% | 0% | 106% | 297% |
High school | 63% | 0% | -13% | -10% | 0% | 0% | 124% | 413% | 0% | 111% | 398% |
Less than high school | 60% | 0% | -13% | -10% | 0% | 0% | 127% | 547% | 0% | 114% | 537% |
Current-law initial AIME quintile | |||||||||||
Highest | 93% | 0% | -13% | -11% | -7% | 39% | 85% | 121% | 34% | 75% | 109% |
Second highest | 81% | 0% | -13% | -11% | 0% | 40% | 114% | 170% | 36% | 102% | 161% |
Middle | 70% | 0% | -12% | -10% | 0% | 29% | 138% | 246% | 25% | 125% | 237% |
Second lowest | 63% | 0% | -12% | -9% | 0% | 11% | 189% | 452% | 9% | 173% | 439% |
Lowest | 39% | 0% | -12% | -5% | 0% | 0% | 128% | 1,529% | 0% | 118% | 1,455% |
Lifetime payroll tax quintile | |||||||||||
Highest | 94% | 0% | -13% | -11% | -7% | 41% | 85% | 121% | 36% | 76% | 108% |
Second highest | 80% | 0% | -13% | -11% | 0% | 41% | 116% | 173% | 37% | 103% | 164% |
Middle | 70% | 0% | -12% | -10% | 0% | 31% | 139% | 254% | 28% | 125% | 244% |
Second lowest | 64% | 0% | -12% | -9% | 0% | 13% | 183% | 414% | 12% | 166% | 402% |
Lowest | 39% | 0% | -12% | -6% | 0% | 0% | 126% | 1,578% | 0% | 115% | 1,503% |
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared) | |||||||||||
Highest | 94% | 0% | -13% | -11% | -5% | 44% | 87% | 139% | 39% | 78% | 127% |
Second highest | 82% | 0% | -13% | -11% | 0% | 45% | 117% | 231% | 40% | 105% | 219% |
Middle | 71% | 0% | -12% | -10% | 0% | 34% | 136% | 307% | 31% | 122% | 295% |
Second lowest | 62% | 0% | -12% | -9% | 0% | 12% | 167% | 512% | 11% | 152% | 497% |
Lowest | 36% | 0% | -12% | -9% | 0% | 0% | 89% | 792% | 0% | 81% | 766% |
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 06/30/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v2 | |||||||||||
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
|
Characteristic | Percent of population with a— |
Percent change in initial replacement rate at the— | Initial replacement rate without proposal at the— |
Initial replacement rate with proposal at the— |
|||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Rate decrease | Rate increase | 10th %ile | Median | 90th %ile | 10th %ile | Median | 90th %ile | 10th %ile | Median | 90th %ile | |
Total | 45% | 0% | -2% | 0% | 0% | 24% | 46% | 79% | 23% | 45% | 78% |
Sex | |||||||||||
Female | 43% | 0% | -2% | 0% | 0% | 28% | 51% | 90% | 28% | 51% | 90% |
Male | 47% | 0% | -2% | 0% | 0% | 22% | 42% | 66% | 22% | 41% | 65% |
Race/ethnicity | |||||||||||
Hispanic or Latino, any race | 50% | 0% | -2% | 0% | 0% | 28% | 50% | 84% | 27% | 50% | 83% |
White, non-Hispanic | 45% | 0% | -2% | 0% | 0% | 23% | 43% | 74% | 23% | 43% | 74% |
Black or African American, non-Hispanic | 37% | 0% | -2% | 0% | 0% | 28% | 51% | 85% | 28% | 50% | 83% |
All other races, non-Hispanic | 53% | 0% | -2% | -1% | 0% | 24% | 48% | 90% | 23% | 47% | 90% |
Country of birth | |||||||||||
United States | 43% | 0% | -2% | 0% | 0% | 23% | 44% | 75% | 23% | 44% | 74% |
Other countries | 52% | 0% | -2% | -1% | 0% | 28% | 53% | 90% | 28% | 53% | 90% |
Highest education level | |||||||||||
Graduate | 53% | 0% | -2% | -1% | 0% | 21% | 41% | 71% | 21% | 41% | 70% |
Bachelor | 52% | 0% | -2% | -1% | 0% | 22% | 42% | 77% | 21% | 42% | 76% |
Associate | 44% | 0% | -2% | 0% | 0% | 24% | 45% | 74% | 24% | 44% | 73% |
High school | 40% | 0% | -2% | 0% | 0% | 27% | 48% | 81% | 26% | 47% | 81% |
Less than high school | 43% | 0% | -2% | 0% | 0% | 33% | 56% | 90% | 33% | 55% | 90% |
Current-law initial AIME quintile | |||||||||||
Highest | 65% | 0% | -2% | -1% | 0% | 17% | 31% | 47% | 16% | 30% | 47% |
Second highest | 49% | 0% | -2% | 0% | 0% | 24% | 38% | 56% | 23% | 37% | 55% |
Middle | 43% | 0% | -2% | 0% | 0% | 29% | 43% | 63% | 29% | 42% | 62% |
Second lowest | 36% | 0% | -2% | 0% | 0% | 38% | 51% | 77% | 38% | 51% | 76% |
Lowest | 32% | 0% | -2% | 0% | 0% | 53% | 70% | 119% | 53% | 70% | 118% |
Lifetime payroll tax quintile | |||||||||||
Highest | 65% | 0% | -2% | -1% | 0% | 16% | 33% | 50% | 16% | 33% | 50% |
Second highest | 47% | 0% | -2% | 0% | 0% | 23% | 37% | 57% | 22% | 37% | 56% |
Middle | 43% | 0% | -2% | 0% | 0% | 31% | 43% | 63% | 30% | 42% | 63% |
Second lowest | 37% | 0% | -2% | 0% | 0% | 37% | 50% | 78% | 37% | 50% | 76% |
Lowest | 32% | 0% | -2% | 0% | 0% | 52% | 68% | 113% | 52% | 68% | 112% |
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared) | |||||||||||
Highest | 67% | 0% | -2% | -1% | 0% | 18% | 36% | 53% | 17% | 36% | 53% |
Second highest | 47% | 0% | -2% | 0% | 0% | 22% | 38% | 62% | 22% | 38% | 61% |
Middle | 41% | 0% | -2% | 0% | 0% | 28% | 43% | 69% | 27% | 42% | 68% |
Second lowest | 37% | 0% | -2% | 0% | 0% | 33% | 50% | 82% | 33% | 49% | 82% |
Lowest | 32% | 0% | -2% | 0% | 0% | 46% | 63% | 92% | 45% | 63% | 90% |
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 06/30/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v2 | |||||||||||
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
|
Characteristic | Percent of population with a— |
Percent change in initial replacement rate at the— | Initial replacement rate without proposal at the— |
Initial replacement rate with proposal at the— |
|||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Rate decrease | Rate increase | 10th %ile | Median | 90th %ile | 10th %ile | Median | 90th %ile | 10th %ile | Median | 90th %ile | |
Total | 79% | 0% | -19% | -6% | 0% | 24% | 47% | 85% | 16% | 43% | 80% |
Sex | |||||||||||
Female | 78% | 0% | -23% | -6% | 0% | 27% | 53% | 90% | 17% | 48% | 89% |
Male | 79% | 0% | -16% | -6% | 0% | 22% | 43% | 73% | 16% | 39% | 69% |
Race/ethnicity | |||||||||||
Hispanic or Latino, any race | 78% | 0% | -8% | -6% | 0% | 28% | 51% | 90% | 23% | 49% | 87% |
White, non-Hispanic | 80% | 0% | -22% | -6% | 0% | 23% | 45% | 81% | 14% | 41% | 76% |
Black or African American, non-Hispanic | 68% | 0% | -8% | -6% | 0% | 26% | 51% | 83% | 21% | 49% | 80% |
All other races, non-Hispanic | 90% | 0% | -76% | -6% | 0% | 22% | 46% | 90% | 6% | 39% | 82% |
Country of birth | |||||||||||
United States | 78% | 0% | -19% | -6% | 0% | 23% | 46% | 81% | 16% | 42% | 76% |
Other countries | 81% | 0% | -16% | -6% | 0% | 27% | 54% | 90% | 19% | 49% | 90% |
Highest education level | |||||||||||
Graduate | 88% | 0% | -100% | -6% | 0% | 21% | 42% | 75% | 0% | 35% | 67% |
Bachelor | 87% | 0% | -53% | -6% | 0% | 21% | 43% | 82% | 7% | 37% | 75% |
Associate | 76% | 0% | -8% | -6% | 0% | 24% | 45% | 76% | 21% | 43% | 73% |
High school | 71% | 0% | -7% | -6% | 0% | 28% | 51% | 89% | 24% | 49% | 85% |
Less than high school | 75% | 0% | -7% | -6% | 0% | 31% | 57% | 90% | 28% | 54% | 90% |
Current-law initial AIME quintile | |||||||||||
Highest | 95% | 0% | -100% | -7% | -5% | 16% | 31% | 46% | 0% | 24% | 41% |
Second highest | 85% | 0% | -26% | -6% | 0% | 23% | 38% | 56% | 15% | 33% | 50% |
Middle | 77% | 0% | -8% | -6% | 0% | 29% | 45% | 65% | 24% | 42% | 58% |
Second lowest | 70% | 0% | -7% | -5% | 0% | 41% | 55% | 84% | 37% | 53% | 77% |
Lowest | 66% | 0% | -7% | -5% | 0% | 58% | 74% | 135% | 56% | 71% | 123% |
Lifetime payroll tax quintile | |||||||||||
Highest | 96% | 0% | -100% | -7% | -5% | 16% | 33% | 49% | 0% | 23% | 42% |
Second highest | 85% | 0% | -23% | -6% | 0% | 22% | 37% | 58% | 16% | 33% | 51% |
Middle | 77% | 0% | -8% | -6% | 0% | 30% | 45% | 66% | 25% | 42% | 59% |
Second lowest | 69% | 0% | -7% | -5% | 0% | 39% | 54% | 85% | 36% | 52% | 78% |
Lowest | 67% | 0% | -7% | -5% | 0% | 57% | 73% | 127% | 54% | 70% | 119% |
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared) | |||||||||||
Highest | 94% | 0% | -100% | -7% | -5% | 17% | 35% | 52% | 0% | 25% | 45% |
Second highest | 86% | 0% | -23% | -6% | 0% | 21% | 39% | 62% | 15% | 34% | 56% |
Middle | 80% | 0% | -8% | -6% | 0% | 27% | 44% | 73% | 23% | 42% | 66% |
Second lowest | 68% | 0% | -7% | -5% | 0% | 35% | 53% | 88% | 32% | 51% | 82% |
Lowest | 65% | 0% | -7% | -5% | 0% | 50% | 67% | 108% | 48% | 65% | 100% |
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 06/30/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v2 | |||||||||||
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
|
Characteristic | Percent of population with a— |
Percent change in initial replacement rate at the— | Initial replacement rate without proposal at the— |
Initial replacement rate with proposal at the— |
|||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Rate decrease | Rate increase | 10th %ile | Median | 90th %ile | 10th %ile | Median | 90th %ile | 10th %ile | Median | 90th %ile | |
Total | 79% | 0% | -55% | -11% | 0% | 24% | 48% | 84% | 8% | 41% | 75% |
Sex | |||||||||||
Female | 78% | 0% | -63% | -11% | 0% | 28% | 52% | 90% | 7% | 45% | 86% |
Male | 79% | 0% | -41% | -11% | 0% | 22% | 44% | 73% | 9% | 37% | 66% |
Race/ethnicity | |||||||||||
Hispanic or Latino, any race | 78% | 0% | -27% | -11% | 0% | 27% | 50% | 88% | 19% | 45% | 80% |
White, non-Hispanic | 80% | 0% | -69% | -11% | 0% | 23% | 46% | 81% | 6% | 38% | 72% |
Black or African American, non-Hispanic | 68% | 0% | -33% | -11% | 0% | 26% | 52% | 84% | 16% | 47% | 77% |
All other races, non-Hispanic | 88% | 0% | -100% | -12% | 0% | 22% | 45% | 84% | 0% | 34% | 74% |
Country of birth | |||||||||||
United States | 78% | 0% | -48% | -11% | 0% | 23% | 47% | 81% | 10% | 40% | 73% |
Other countries | 82% | 0% | -78% | -12% | 0% | 26% | 51% | 90% | 6% | 45% | 85% |
Highest education level | |||||||||||
Graduate | 87% | 0% | -100% | -12% | 0% | 21% | 43% | 80% | 0% | 30% | 65% |
Bachelor | 88% | 0% | -100% | -12% | 0% | 21% | 42% | 79% | 0% | 30% | 66% |
Associate | 74% | 0% | -26% | -11% | 0% | 25% | 47% | 77% | 19% | 42% | 71% |
High school | 72% | 0% | -21% | -11% | 0% | 28% | 50% | 88% | 22% | 46% | 81% |
Less than high school | 77% | 0% | -13% | -11% | 0% | 31% | 57% | 90% | 26% | 52% | 88% |
Current-law initial AIME quintile | |||||||||||
Highest | 95% | 0% | -100% | -12% | -10% | 16% | 31% | 47% | 0% | 20% | 37% |
Second highest | 86% | 0% | -63% | -12% | 0% | 24% | 39% | 57% | 8% | 30% | 47% |
Middle | 78% | 0% | -29% | -11% | 0% | 31% | 45% | 65% | 20% | 40% | 55% |
Second lowest | 69% | 0% | -19% | -11% | 0% | 41% | 55% | 84% | 34% | 50% | 71% |
Lowest | 66% | 0% | -13% | -11% | 0% | 58% | 74% | 128% | 53% | 68% | 109% |
Lifetime payroll tax quintile | |||||||||||
Highest | 96% | 0% | -100% | -13% | -11% | 16% | 33% | 49% | 0% | 20% | 38% |
Second highest | 85% | 0% | -56% | -12% | 0% | 23% | 39% | 58% | 9% | 30% | 47% |
Middle | 76% | 0% | -29% | -11% | 0% | 31% | 45% | 66% | 22% | 40% | 54% |
Second lowest | 69% | 0% | -13% | -11% | 0% | 40% | 54% | 83% | 34% | 51% | 71% |
Lowest | 67% | 0% | -12% | -11% | 0% | 57% | 73% | 122% | 52% | 68% | 106% |
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared) | |||||||||||
Highest | 94% | 0% | -100% | -13% | -10% | 16% | 35% | 51% | 0% | 20% | 41% |
Second highest | 86% | 0% | -56% | -12% | 0% | 22% | 40% | 63% | 8% | 31% | 52% |
Middle | 78% | 0% | -28% | -11% | 0% | 29% | 45% | 72% | 19% | 40% | 61% |
Second lowest | 69% | 0% | -13% | -11% | 0% | 37% | 53% | 88% | 31% | 50% | 76% |
Lowest | 66% | 0% | -12% | -11% | 0% | 50% | 67% | 102% | 45% | 63% | 90% |
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 06/30/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v2 | |||||||||||
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
|
For projected effects on the Social Security trust funds, see the Actuary's provision C1.3.