Projected Effects of a Proposal to Increase the Full Retirement Age (FRA)

Details: One month every 2 years starting in 2023

Projected Effects of Proposal on Social Security Benefits in 2030 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—
Percent change in
Social Security benefits at the—
Benefit decrease Benefit
increase
10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 11% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Sex
Female 10% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Male 13% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 19% 0% -1% 0% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 10% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 11% 0% -1% 0% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 13% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Country of birth
United States 10% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Other countries 16% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Age
60–69 34% 0% -1% 0% 0%
70–79 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
80–89 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
90 or older 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Marital status
Married 14% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Divorced 11% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Widowed 3% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Never married 15% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 7% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Bachelor 11% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Associate 12% 0% -1% 0% 0%
High school 11% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Less than high school 15% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 11% 0% -1% 0% 0%
In poverty 19% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 9% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Second highest 12% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Middle 12% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Second lowest 11% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Lowest 12% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 14% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 11% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Disabled worker only 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 06/30/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v2
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Social Security Benefits in 2050 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—
Percent change in
Social Security benefits at the—
Benefit decrease Benefit
increase
10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 65% 0% -6% -2% 0%
Sex
Female 60% 0% -6% -2% 0%
Male 69% 0% -6% -3% 0%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 69% 0% -6% -3% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 63% 0% -6% -2% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 62% 0% -6% -2% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 70% 0% -6% -3% 0%
Country of birth
United States 64% 0% -6% -2% 0%
Other countries 68% 0% -6% -2% 0%
Age
60–69 74% 0% -7% -6% 0%
70–79 80% 0% -5% -3% 0%
80–89 55% 0% -2% -1% 0%
90 or older 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Marital status
Married 73% 0% -6% -3% 0%
Divorced 64% 0% -6% -2% 0%
Widowed 37% 0% -4% 0% 0%
Never married 72% 0% -6% -3% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 69% 0% -6% -2% 0%
Bachelor 66% 0% -6% -2% 0%
Associate 65% 0% -6% -2% 0%
High school 60% 0% -6% -2% 0%
Less than high school 67% 0% -6% -3% 0%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 65% 0% -6% -2% 0%
In poverty 65% 0% -6% -2% 0%
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 70% 0% -6% -2% 0%
Second highest 69% 0% -6% -3% 0%
Middle 67% 0% -6% -2% 0%
Second lowest 60% 0% -6% -2% 0%
Lowest 58% 0% -6% -1% 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 76% 0% -6% -3% 0%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 24% 0% -2% 0% 0%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 71% 0% -7% -3% 0%
Disabled worker only 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 06/30/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v2
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Social Security Benefits in 2070 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—
Percent change in
Social Security benefits at the—
Benefit decrease Benefit
increase
10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 78% 0% -11% -6% 0%
Sex
Female 77% 0% -11% -6% 0%
Male 80% 0% -12% -7% 0%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 77% 0% -12% -7% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 79% 0% -11% -6% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 72% 0% -11% -6% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 83% 0% -12% -7% 0%
Country of birth
United States 79% 0% -11% -6% 0%
Other countries 77% 0% -12% -6% 0%
Age
60–69 75% 0% -13% -11% 0%
70–79 82% 0% -10% -8% 0%
80–89 77% 0% -8% -5% 0%
90 or older 79% 0% -5% -3% 0%
Marital status
Married 82% 0% -12% -8% 0%
Divorced 79% 0% -11% -5% 0%
Widowed 64% 0% -8% -3% 0%
Never married 80% 0% -12% -8% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 83% 0% -11% -6% 0%
Bachelor 83% 0% -11% -6% 0%
Associate 77% 0% -11% -7% 0%
High school 74% 0% -12% -6% 0%
Less than high school 75% 0% -12% -8% 0%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 78% 0% -11% -6% 0%
In poverty 78% 0% -12% -8% 0%
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 86% 0% -12% -6% 0%
Second highest 83% 0% -12% -7% 0%
Middle 78% 0% -12% -7% 0%
Second lowest 74% 0% -11% -6% 0%
Lowest 71% 0% -11% -6% 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 87% 0% -12% -8% 0%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 53% 0% -5% -1% 0%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 82% 0% -13% -8% 0%
Disabled worker only 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 06/30/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v2
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Social Security Taxes Paid in 2030 POPULATION: Current-law payroll taxpayers aged 31 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—
Percent change in Social Security taxes paid at the— Change in taxes paid
(in 2021$) at the—
Tax decrease Tax increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Sex
Female 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Male 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
White, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Country of birth
United States 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Other countries 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Age
31–39 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
40–49 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
50–59 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
60–69 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
70 or older 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Marital status
Married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Divorced 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Widowed 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Never married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Bachelor 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Associate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
High school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Less than high school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Current-law payroll taxes quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 06/30/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v2
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Social Security Taxes Paid in 2050 POPULATION: Current-law payroll taxpayers aged 31 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—
Percent change in Social Security taxes paid at the— Change in taxes paid
(in 2021$) at the—
Tax decrease Tax increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Sex
Female 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Male 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
White, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Country of birth
United States 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Other countries 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Age
31–39 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
40–49 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
50–59 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
60–69 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
70 or older 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Marital status
Married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Divorced 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Widowed 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Never married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Bachelor 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Associate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
High school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Less than high school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Current-law payroll taxes quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 06/30/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v2
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Social Security Taxes Paid in 2070 POPULATION: Current-law payroll taxpayers aged 31 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—
Percent change in Social Security taxes paid at the— Change in taxes paid
(in 2021$) at the—
Tax decrease Tax increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Sex
Female 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Male 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
White, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Country of birth
United States 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Other countries 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Age
31–39 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
40–49 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
50–59 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
60–69 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
70 or older 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Marital status
Married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Divorced 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Widowed 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Never married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Bachelor 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Associate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
High school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Less than high school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Current-law payroll taxes quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 06/30/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v2
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Household Income in 2030 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with an—
Percent change in
household income at the—
Income decrease Income increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 2% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Sex
Female 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Male 2% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 3% 0% 0% 0% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 2% 0% 0% 0% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 2% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Country of birth
United States 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Other countries 2% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Age
60–69 5% 0% 0% 0% 0%
70–79 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
80–89 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
90 or older 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Marital status
Married 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Divorced 3% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Widowed 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Never married 4% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Bachelor 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Associate 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
High school 2% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Less than high school 3% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
In poverty 12% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Second lowest 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Lowest 6% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 2% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Disabled worker only 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 06/30/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v2
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Household Income in 2050 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with an—
Percent change in
household income at the—
Income decrease Income increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 43% 0% -3% 0% 0%
Sex
Female 40% 0% -3% 0% 0%
Male 47% 0% -3% 0% 0%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 51% 0% -3% -1% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 41% 0% -2% 0% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 44% 0% -3% 0% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 40% 0% -3% 0% 0%
Country of birth
United States 43% 0% -3% 0% 0%
Other countries 45% 0% -3% 0% 0%
Age
60–69 59% 0% -4% -1% 0%
70–79 58% 0% -3% -1% 0%
80–89 20% 0% -1% 0% 0%
90 or older 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Marital status
Married 51% 0% -3% -1% 0%
Divorced 41% 0% -3% 0% 0%
Widowed 19% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Never married 50% 0% -4% -1% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 36% 0% -2% 0% 0%
Bachelor 38% 0% -2% 0% 0%
Associate 48% 0% -3% 0% 0%
High school 45% 0% -3% 0% 0%
Less than high school 51% 0% -4% -1% 0%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 43% 0% -3% 0% 0%
In poverty 49% 0% -5% 0% 0%
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 16% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Second highest 41% 0% -2% 0% 0%
Middle 53% 0% -2% -1% 0%
Second lowest 55% 0% -3% -1% 0%
Lowest 52% 0% -5% -1% 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 50% 0% -3% -1% 0%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 13% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 53% 0% -3% -1% 0%
Disabled worker only 11% 0% -1% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 06/30/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v2
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Household Income in 2070 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with an—
Percent change in
household income at the—
Income decrease Income increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 69% 0% -7% -2% 0%
Sex
Female 67% 0% -7% -1% 0%
Male 71% 0% -7% -2% 0%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 71% 0% -8% -2% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 69% 0% -6% -2% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 65% 0% -8% -2% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 66% 0% -7% -1% 0%
Country of birth
United States 70% 0% -7% -2% 0%
Other countries 66% 0% -7% -2% 0%
Age
60–69 70% 0% -10% -2% 0%
70–79 74% 0% -7% -2% 0%
80–89 66% 0% -5% -1% 0%
90 or older 54% 0% -3% -1% 0%
Marital status
Married 80% 0% -7% -2% 0%
Divorced 63% 0% -7% -1% 0%
Widowed 47% 0% -5% 0% 0%
Never married 67% 0% -9% -2% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 65% 0% -6% -1% 0%
Bachelor 68% 0% -6% -1% 0%
Associate 72% 0% -7% -2% 0%
High school 70% 0% -8% -2% 0%
Less than high school 68% 0% -8% -2% 0%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 69% 0% -7% -2% 0%
In poverty 61% 2% -10% -4% 0%
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 45% 0% -2% 0% 0%
Second highest 75% 0% -4% -1% 0%
Middle 79% 0% -6% -2% 0%
Second lowest 77% 0% -8% -3% 0%
Lowest 69% 1% -10% -4% 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 77% 0% -8% -2% 0%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 37% 0% -3% 0% 0%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 80% 1% -7% -2% 0%
Disabled worker only 14% 0% -2% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 06/30/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v2
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Official Poverty Measure in 2030 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Official poverty rate Number of population in poverty
(in thousands)
Percent change in the number in poverty
Without proposal With proposal Without proposal With proposal Change
Total 5% 5% 3,237 3,252 0%
Sex
Female 5% 5% 1,787 1,791 0%
Male 4% 4% 1,450 1,462 0%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 7% 7% 570 574 0%
White, non-Hispanic 3% 3% 1,804 1,811 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 9% 9% 636 636 0 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 6% 6% 228 231
Country of birth
United States 4% 4% 2,472 2,483 0%
Other countries 7% 7% 765 769 0%
Age
60–69 6% 6% 1,486 1,497 0%
70–79 4% 4% 1,318 1,322 0%
80–89 3% 3% 381 381 0 0%
90 or older 2% 2% 53 53 0 0%
Marital status
Married 1% 1% 469 473 0%
Divorced 9% 9% 1,207 1,214 0%
Widowed 6% 6% 740 740 0 0%
Never married 16% 16% 821 824 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 1% 1% 97 97 0 0%
Bachelor 2% 2% 263 263 0 0%
Associate 4% 4% 626 626 0 0%
High school 6% 6% 1,534 1,545 0%
Less than high school 12% 12% 717 721 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 4% 4% 2,252 2,267 0%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 5% 5% 577 577 0 0%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 2% 2% 145 145 0 0%
Disabled worker only 10% 10% 263 263 0 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 06/30/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v2
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Official Poverty Measure in 2050 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Official poverty rate Number of population in poverty
(in thousands)
Percent change in the number in poverty
Without proposal With proposal Without proposal With proposal Change
Total 4% 4% 3,309 3,557
Sex
Female 4% 4% 1,862 1,980
Male 4% 4% 1,447 1,576
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 6% 6% 897 956
White, non-Hispanic 3% 3% 1,472 1,577
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 8% 8% 679 740
All other races, non-Hispanic 4% 4% 261 284
Country of birth
United States 4% 4% 2,260 2,438
Other countries 6% 6% 1,048 1,119
Age
60–69 5% 6% 1,277 1,390
70–79 4% 4% 1,105 1,223
80–89 3% 4% 734 751
90 or older 3% 3% 193 193 0 0%
Marital status
Married 1% 1% 457 501
Divorced 6% 7% 948 1,028
Widowed 5% 5% 750 785
Never married 12% 13% 1,154 1,244
Highest education level
Graduate 1% 1% 91 97
Bachelor 2% 2% 280 317
Associate 3% 3% 555 620
High school 6% 6% 1,549 1,662
Less than high school 11% 11% 834 861
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 0% 0% 0 250
In poverty 100% 100% 3,309 3,307 -2 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 4% 4% 2,500 2,714
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 4% 4% 498 516
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 1% 2% 99 115
Disabled worker only 6% 6% 212 212 0 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 06/30/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v2
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
. . . = not applicable.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Official Poverty Measure in 2070 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Official poverty rate Number of population in poverty
(in thousands)
Percent change in the number in poverty
Without proposal With proposal Without proposal With proposal Change
Total 3% 3% 2,425 2,922
Sex
Female 3% 3% 1,304 1,564
Male 2% 3% 1,121 1,359
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 3% 4% 769 938
White, non-Hispanic 2% 2% 1,009 1,210
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 4% 5% 392 469
All other races, non-Hispanic 3% 3% 254 306
Country of birth
United States 2% 3% 1,586 1,942
Other countries 4% 5% 839 980
Age
60–69 3% 4% 795 1,010
70–79 3% 3% 906 1,084
80–89 3% 3% 585 668
90 or older 2% 2% 139 160
Marital status
Married 1% 1% 292 351
Divorced 3% 4% 613 769
Widowed 3% 4% 473 561
Never married 6% 7% 1,046 1,241
Highest education level
Graduate 1% 1% 156 171
Bachelor 1% 1% 218 255
Associate 2% 3% 405 509
High school 4% 4% 1,033 1,259
Less than high school 6% 7% 613 728
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 0% 1% 0 504
In poverty 100% 100% 2,425 2,419 -6 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 3% 3% 1,958 2,420
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 2% 3% 321 351
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 1% 1% 41 46
Disabled worker only 3% 3% 105 105 0 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 06/30/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v2
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
. . . = not applicable.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Benefit/Tax Ratios POPULATION: Workers born 1960–1969 with a benefit/tax ratio (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—
Percent change in benefit/tax ratio at the— Benefit/tax ratio
without proposal
at the—
Benefit/tax ratio
with proposal
at the—
Ratio decrease Ratio increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 34% 0% -2% 0% 0%
Sex
Female 30% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Male 38% 0% -2% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 35% 0% -2% 0% 0% 0% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 34% 0% -2% 0% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 28% 0% -1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 38% 0% -2% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Country of birth
United States 33% 0% -2% 0% 0%
Other countries 36% 0% -2% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 44% 0% -2% 0% 0%
Bachelor 42% 0% -2% 0% 0%
Associate 33% 0% -2% 0% 0%
High school 29% 0% -1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Less than high school 28% 0% -2% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 57% 0% -2% -1% 0%
Second highest 40% 0% -2% 0% 0%
Middle 30% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Second lowest 26% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Lowest 16% 0% -1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 57% 0% -2% -1% 0%
Second highest 39% 0% -2% 0% 0%
Middle 30% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Second lowest 26% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Lowest 17% 0% -1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 57% 0% -2% -1% 0%
Second highest 37% 0% -2% 0% 0%
Middle 29% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Second lowest 27% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Lowest 18% 0% -1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 06/30/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v2
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Benefit/Tax Ratios POPULATION: Workers born 1980–1989 with a benefit/tax ratio (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—
Percent change in benefit/tax ratio at the— Benefit/tax ratio
without proposal
at the—
Benefit/tax ratio
with proposal
at the—
Ratio decrease Ratio increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 67% 0% -7% -5% 0% 0% 0%
Sex
Female 68% 0% -7% -5% 0% 0% 0%
Male 66% 0% -7% -6% 0% 0% 0%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 62% 0% -7% -5% 0% 0% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 72% 0% -7% -5% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 54% 0% -7% -5% 0% 0% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 67% 0% -7% -6% 0% 0% 0%
Country of birth
United States 70% 0% -7% -5% 0%
Other countries 59% 0% -7% -5% 0% 0% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 81% 0% -8% -6% 0%
Bachelor 78% 0% -8% -6% 0%
Associate 67% 0% -7% -5% 0% 0% 0%
High school 60% 0% -7% -5% 0% 0% 0%
Less than high school 55% 0% -7% -5% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 92% 0% -8% -6% -3%
Second highest 80% 0% -7% -6% 0%
Middle 69% 0% -7% -5% 0%
Second lowest 61% 0% -7% -5% 0% 0% 0%
Lowest 34% 0% -7% -2% 0% 0% 0%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 93% 0% -8% -6% -3%
Second highest 79% 0% -7% -6% 0%
Middle 69% 0% -7% -5% 0%
Second lowest 61% 0% -7% -5% 0% 0% 0%
Lowest 34% 0% -7% -2% 0% 0% 0%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 92% 0% -8% -6% -2%
Second highest 82% 0% -7% -6% 0%
Middle 70% 0% -7% -5% 0%
Second lowest 60% 0% -7% -5% 0%
Lowest 32% 0% -7% -3% 0% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 06/30/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v2
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Benefit/Tax Ratios POPULATION: Workers born 2000–2009 with a benefit/tax ratio (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—
Percent change in benefit/tax ratio at the— Benefit/tax ratio
without proposal
at the—
Benefit/tax ratio
with proposal
at the—
Ratio decrease Ratio increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 69% 0% -13% -10% 0% 0% 0%
Sex
Female 71% 0% -12% -10% 0% 0% 0%
Male 67% 0% -13% -11% 0% 0% 0%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 66% 0% -13% -10% 0% 0% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 74% 0% -13% -10% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 58% 0% -13% -10% 0% 0% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 71% 0% -13% -11% 0% 0% 0%
Country of birth
United States 71% 0% -13% -10% 0%
Other countries 63% 0% -13% -11% 0% 0% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 82% 0% -13% -11% 0%
Bachelor 80% 0% -13% -11% 0%
Associate 67% 0% -12% -10% 0% 0% 0%
High school 63% 0% -13% -10% 0% 0% 0%
Less than high school 60% 0% -13% -10% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 93% 0% -13% -11% -7%
Second highest 81% 0% -13% -11% 0%
Middle 70% 0% -12% -10% 0%
Second lowest 63% 0% -12% -9% 0%
Lowest 39% 0% -12% -5% 0% 0% 0%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 94% 0% -13% -11% -7%
Second highest 80% 0% -13% -11% 0%
Middle 70% 0% -12% -10% 0%
Second lowest 64% 0% -12% -9% 0%
Lowest 39% 0% -12% -6% 0% 0% 0%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 94% 0% -13% -11% -5%
Second highest 82% 0% -13% -11% 0%
Middle 71% 0% -12% -10% 0%
Second lowest 62% 0% -12% -9% 0%
Lowest 36% 0% -12% -9% 0% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 06/30/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v2
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Initial Replacement Rates POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries born 1960–1969 with a replacement rate (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—
Percent change in initial replacement rate at the— Initial replacement rate
without proposal
at the—
Initial replacement rate
with proposal
at the—
Rate decrease Rate increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 45% 0% -2% 0% 0%
Sex
Female 43% 0% -2% 0% 0%
Male 47% 0% -2% 0% 0%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 50% 0% -2% 0% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 45% 0% -2% 0% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 37% 0% -2% 0% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 53% 0% -2% -1% 0%
Country of birth
United States 43% 0% -2% 0% 0%
Other countries 52% 0% -2% -1% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 53% 0% -2% -1% 0%
Bachelor 52% 0% -2% -1% 0%
Associate 44% 0% -2% 0% 0%
High school 40% 0% -2% 0% 0%
Less than high school 43% 0% -2% 0% 0%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 65% 0% -2% -1% 0%
Second highest 49% 0% -2% 0% 0%
Middle 43% 0% -2% 0% 0%
Second lowest 36% 0% -2% 0% 0%
Lowest 32% 0% -2% 0% 0%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 65% 0% -2% -1% 0%
Second highest 47% 0% -2% 0% 0%
Middle 43% 0% -2% 0% 0%
Second lowest 37% 0% -2% 0% 0%
Lowest 32% 0% -2% 0% 0%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 67% 0% -2% -1% 0%
Second highest 47% 0% -2% 0% 0%
Middle 41% 0% -2% 0% 0%
Second lowest 37% 0% -2% 0% 0%
Lowest 32% 0% -2% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 06/30/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v2
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Initial Replacement Rates POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries born 1980–1989 with a replacement rate (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—
Percent change in initial replacement rate at the— Initial replacement rate
without proposal
at the—
Initial replacement rate
with proposal
at the—
Rate decrease Rate increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 79% 0% -19% -6% 0%
Sex
Female 78% 0% -23% -6% 0%
Male 79% 0% -16% -6% 0%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 78% 0% -8% -6% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 80% 0% -22% -6% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 68% 0% -8% -6% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 90% 0% -76% -6% 0%
Country of birth
United States 78% 0% -19% -6% 0%
Other countries 81% 0% -16% -6% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 88% 0% -100% -6% 0% 0%
Bachelor 87% 0% -53% -6% 0%
Associate 76% 0% -8% -6% 0%
High school 71% 0% -7% -6% 0%
Less than high school 75% 0% -7% -6% 0%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 95% 0% -100% -7% -5% 0%
Second highest 85% 0% -26% -6% 0%
Middle 77% 0% -8% -6% 0%
Second lowest 70% 0% -7% -5% 0%
Lowest 66% 0% -7% -5% 0%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 96% 0% -100% -7% -5% 0%
Second highest 85% 0% -23% -6% 0%
Middle 77% 0% -8% -6% 0%
Second lowest 69% 0% -7% -5% 0%
Lowest 67% 0% -7% -5% 0%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 94% 0% -100% -7% -5% 0%
Second highest 86% 0% -23% -6% 0%
Middle 80% 0% -8% -6% 0%
Second lowest 68% 0% -7% -5% 0%
Lowest 65% 0% -7% -5% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 06/30/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v2
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Initial Replacement Rates POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries born 2000–2009 with a replacement rate (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—
Percent change in initial replacement rate at the— Initial replacement rate
without proposal
at the—
Initial replacement rate
with proposal
at the—
Rate decrease Rate increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 79% 0% -55% -11% 0%
Sex
Female 78% 0% -63% -11% 0%
Male 79% 0% -41% -11% 0%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 78% 0% -27% -11% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 80% 0% -69% -11% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 68% 0% -33% -11% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 88% 0% -100% -12% 0% 0%
Country of birth
United States 78% 0% -48% -11% 0%
Other countries 82% 0% -78% -12% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 87% 0% -100% -12% 0% 0%
Bachelor 88% 0% -100% -12% 0% 0%
Associate 74% 0% -26% -11% 0%
High school 72% 0% -21% -11% 0%
Less than high school 77% 0% -13% -11% 0%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 95% 0% -100% -12% -10% 0%
Second highest 86% 0% -63% -12% 0%
Middle 78% 0% -29% -11% 0%
Second lowest 69% 0% -19% -11% 0%
Lowest 66% 0% -13% -11% 0%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 96% 0% -100% -13% -11% 0%
Second highest 85% 0% -56% -12% 0%
Middle 76% 0% -29% -11% 0%
Second lowest 69% 0% -13% -11% 0%
Lowest 67% 0% -12% -11% 0%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 94% 0% -100% -13% -10% 0%
Second highest 86% 0% -56% -12% 0%
Middle 78% 0% -28% -11% 0%
Second lowest 69% 0% -13% -11% 0%
Lowest 66% 0% -12% -11% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 06/30/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v2
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.